Here’s our bubble report, updated Saturday afternoon, Sept. 26. Money is counted through Pasadena and Sioux Falls Round 1. Everything else is leaders only until it pays.
Last week’s report: Final Week Math: Who Can Still Upset the Top 15 and Who’s Safe
If your name is mentioned in this article, please don’t read it. Go finish this thing.
If it isn’t…let’s dive in.
Somewhere between Friday evening on the 25 and Saturday mid-morning September 26, the chess game that determines the 2026 NFR barrel racing field got REALLY interesting.
Andrea Busby made the first move of the day. She went 15.65 in the slack at the Sheriff’s PRCA Rodeo in San Bernardino, California, Saturday morning to take the lead over Parker Asam’s 15.90. Now she heads back to the Cinch Playoffs Governor’s Cup in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, for Round 2 tonight.
She’s the only barrel racer outside the top 15 with a real shot left. Busby is No. 19 at $94,693, $23,676 behind LaTricia Duke, who holds the last NFR spot on our projected world standings. If Busby gets in, somebody goes out. Most likely it’s whichever of Duke or Makenzie Mayes finishes lower, but Tricia Aldridge isn’t locked either. Mayes is No. 14, just $414 ahead of Duke.
The top 15 line
| No. | Rider | Total | Sioux Falls |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Katelyn Scott | $133,723 | Yes |
| 13 | Tricia Aldridge | $125,614 | Yes |
| 14 | Makenzie Mayes | $118,783 | Yes |
| 15 | LaTricia Duke | $118,369 | No |
| 16 | Summer Kosel | $106,760 | No |
| 19 | Andrea Busby | $94,693 | Yes |
Katelyn Scott is locked in. Nobody left in the race can catch her.
Tricia Aldridge could still get bumped. At $125,614, she’s the next rider up if Busby, Duke and Mayes all have big nights. It would take all three at once, and any check Aldridge wins in Sioux Falls herself raises the bar on every one of them.
What to watch Saturday night
| When | Where | Who |
|---|---|---|
| 1 and 7:30 p.m. PT | Poway, California | Duke leads at 17.57, Busby is third at 17.88, eight runs left |
| 7 p.m. CT | Amarillo, Texas | Duke is tied for sixth at 16.66, nine runs left |
| 7 p.m. MT | Mona, Utah | Duke leads at 17.45, eight runs left |
| 7:30 p.m. CT | Sioux Falls, Round 2 | Busby, Mayes and Aldridge all run |
| 8 p.m. PT | San Bernardino | Duke is fifth out, and 15.65 is the time to beat |
San Bernardino is Duke’s last run of the weekend. Sunday brings the Sioux Falls semifinal and finals at 2 p.m. CT, and Mayes and Scott run San Bernardino at 6 p.m. PT.
How to keep score tonight
The easiest way to follow along is to start with $23,676. Every dollar Duke wins adds to it, every dollar Busby wins comes off it, and if it gets to zero, Busby’s in.
If Busby’s 15.65 holds up, Duke keeps her spots at Poway, Mona and Amarillo, and Busby stays third at Poway, that number is about $21,800 going into Sioux Falls. If Duke beats 15.65 tonight, it jumps to about $28,000. Those are our best estimates until the rodeos pay.
What Busby needs in Sioux Falls
Busby sits eighth on the aggregate after Round 1, and the top eight after two rounds move on to Sunday’s semifinal. Just getting there is worth at least $4,500. The top four out of the semifinal run for the finals money instead.
| Result | Pay | Gap $21,800 | If Duke wins San B ($28,000) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round 2 win + finals 2nd | $38,533 | Yes | Yes |
| Finals win | $34,000 | Yes | Yes |
| Round 2 win + finals 3rd | $29,533 | Yes | Yes |
| Round 2 2nd + finals 3rd | $26,400 | Yes | No |
| Finals 2nd | $26,000 | Yes | No |
| Round 2 3rd + finals 3rd | $23,267 | Yes | No |
| Round 2 win + finals 4th | $21,533 | No | No |
| Finals 3rd | $17,000 | No | No |
Both columns assume Duke holds at Poway, Mona and Amarillo. If Duke picks up a San Bernardino check but doesn’t win it, the answer lands somewhere in between.
Mayes and Duke
Mayes can take care of this herself tonight. She’s seventh on the Sioux Falls aggregate, and a Round 2 win, or second plus a semifinal check, puts her out of Duke’s reach. Then it’s straight Busby versus Duke.
If Mayes makes the semifinal and nothing else, she’s at $123,283. Duke, if her three spots hold, lands at about $123,100, just behind her. That’s too close to call, and it likely comes down to San Bernardino, where Duke runs tonight and Mayes runs Sunday.
Your questions, answered
What if Busby’s 15.65 holds up? Twelve riders are left at San Bernardino, including Duke tonight and Mayes on Sunday. If nobody catches her, the number is about $21,800, and a second-place finals check gets her in on its own.
What if Duke beats it? Then Duke wins San Bernardino, Busby drops to second and the number grows to about $28,000. Busby would need to win the finals, place second in the finals with any Round 2 check, or win Round 2 and place third in the finals.
What if Duke slips somewhere tonight? Second instead of first at Poway or Mona only costs her about $300. At Amarillo, nine riders are still to come, and her tie for sixth is worth about $620 if it holds.
What if Busby and Mayes both make the finals? Mayes is at $127,783 or more at that point, and Duke would need to win San Bernardino to stay ahead of her.
What would it take to bump Aldridge? All three of these. Busby needs about $24,200 in Sioux Falls if her San Bernardino lead holds, which is a finals first or second, or a Round 2 win or second plus a third-place finals check. Duke needs a top-four check at San Bernardino tonight on top of her Poway, Mona and Amarillo spots. Mayes needs any finals check, or a Round 2 check plus a semifinal check.
Is anyone else still running? Not according to the day sheets. Outside San Bernardino and Sioux Falls, all that’s left to settle is where Duke finishes at Poway, Mona and Amarillo. The one thing nobody can plan for is a walk-up. San Bernardino, Poway, Mona and Cumberland all run the walk-up replacement policy, so a rider who isn’t on the day sheet can still show up and claim a turned-out spot in a performance.
When will we know? Most likely Sunday night. It’s official when the WPRA posts the final board after Sept. 30, and we’ll have it on our world standings hub.
What the checks are worth
| Rodeo | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Bernardino (56 entered, 15 places) | $5,181 | $4,145 | $3,368 |
| Poway (47 entered, 12 places) | $2,130 | $1,811 | $1,491 |
| Mona (39 entered, 12 places) | $1,995 | $1,710 | $1,397 |
| Sioux Falls, each long round | $12,533 | $9,400 | $6,267 |
| Sioux Falls finals | $34,000 | $26,000 | $17,000 |
Sioux Falls pays the official 2026 ladder. The rest, including Amarillo (61 entered, 12 places), are our estimates until the rodeos pay. Not every turnout’s fee stays in the pot, so we modeled it on Pasadena, where about a third of the turnouts’ fees stayed in once it paid. San Bernardino, Poway and Mona are adjusted to the numbers riders there are working with. Places are set by WPRA Rule 11.1.2, and entry counts come off the ProRodeo day sheets.