Number Crunching: What (Unofficially) Has to Happen for Barrel Racers Chasing the NFR

Carlee Otero is the first rider in the 2026 standings past $200,000. Makenzie Mayes holds the last NFR spot and a seat at the richest rodeo left. And of the five riders chasing her, four can get to Sioux Falls and one cannot.
three barrel racers competing in a collage

The WPRA ProRodeo season closes on September 30, 2026, and there’s a whole lot of talented barrel racers chasing down 15 spots to the National Finals Rodeo in Las Vegas this December.

Here’s what we know based off our unofficial World Standings projections on September 14.

Carlee Otero is the first rider in the 2026 standings past $200,000. Makenzie Mayes holds the last NFR spot and a seat at the richest rodeo left. And of the five riders chasing her, four can get to Sioux Falls and one cannot.

Makenzie Mayes holds the last NFR spot at $108,542. Austyn Tobey is No. 16 at $98,059, $10,483 behind her. On the money alone that is a gap either rider could swing in a weekend.

The NFR takes the top 15 on season earnings, and there are 26 rodeos left before the season closes Sept. 30. The biggest by a distance is the Cinch Playoffs Governor’s Cup at Sioux Falls, $166,666 added, which paid one rider $55,822 in 2025. It is also the only one a rider cannot simply enter. The field is 12: the top four from Puyallup, plus the top eight in Playoff Series points as of Sept. 21. Mayes is No. 4 in those points. Tobey is No. 40.

The line

Tobey closed $1,275 of the gap on Mayes with a seventh at the Tri-State Rodeo in Fort Madison, Iowa, the only check either rider cashed between Sept. 8 and Sept. 13.

Behind Tobey, and measured against Mayes at No. 15: Summer Kosel is No. 17 at $96,917, $11,625 back. Loralee Ward is No. 18 at $94,505, $14,037 back. Andrea Busby is No. 19 at $91,809, $16,733 back. Heidi Gunderson is No. 20 at $88,814, $19,728 back.

Katelyn Scott moved from No. 15 to No. 14 at $110,414 on a $2,301 week. Both she and Mayes are inside the 15, so that swap changes the order and not the field.

What Puyallup did

Carlee Otero won the Puyallup finals in 13.85 for $13,900 and finished the week at $16,533. She goes to No. 1 in the world at $202,389. She went into the final day at Puyallup $315 behind Hayle Gibson-Stillwell and came out of it leading by $13,584.

Gibson-Stillwell is No. 2 at $188,805. She did not place at Puyallup. Her money on the week is $2,728 for fourth at the Lewiston Roundup.

Michelle Alley won $16,693 on the week, more than anybody, and moved from No. 7 to No. 6 at $160,027. She won the first round of Set 2 in 13.77 and was second in the finals in 14.15 for $10,550. Otero won the rodeo.

Lisa Lockhart was third in the finals in 19.19 for $7,200. Megan McLeod-Sprague was fourth in 19.27 for $3,850. Sydney Graham, Heidi Gunderson, Summer Kosel and Tayla Moeykens placed fifth through eighth in the semifinal for $1,600 each.

The four riders who reached the Puyallup finals are the four who take automatic entries to Sioux Falls: Otero, Alley, Lockhart and McLeod-Sprague.

What Lewiston and Fort Madison did

Kathy Grimes won the Lewiston Roundup in 16.79 for $5,456 and won Spokane Valley in 16.88 for $1,680, a $7,136 week that holds her at No. 9 at $128,999. She also won Walla Walla on Sept. 6, so that is three rodeo wins in seven days.

Hailey Garrison Graham and Megan McLeod-Sprague tied for second at Lewiston in 17.06 for $3,955 each. Hayle Gibson-Stillwell was fourth. Tayla Moeykens was fifth.

Lisa Lockhart won the Tri-State Rodeo in 17.75 for $5,100. She was also third in the second round of Set 2 at Puyallup for $1,755 and third in the finals for $7,200, a $14,055 week that moved her from No. 13 to No. 10 at $125,961, three places, the biggest climb inside the 15. McLeod-Sprague won $11,315 and moved from No. 12 to No. 11 at $123,676.

What’s left?

There is $415,216 of added money left on the board across 26 PRCA approvals. Added money is what a committee puts up before entry fees, and the whole pot is then split across every place and every performance, so the winner leaves with a fraction of it. San Bernardino added $20,000 in 2025 and paid its winner $3,952.

Here is the most one rider took out of each of the relevant stops in 2025.

Rodeo2026 addedMost one rider took, 2025
Cinch Playoffs Governor’s Cup, Sioux Falls$166,666$55,822
Pendleton Round-Up$56,500$16,373
North Dakota Rough Rider Cup, Mandan$60,000$12,938
Sheriff’s PRCA Rodeo, San Bernardino$20,000$3,952
Cowboy Capital, Stephenville$5,000$2,801
Poway Rodeo$8,000$2,352
Young Living’s Last Chance, Mona$7,250$2,107

Sioux Falls and Pendleton are winning weeks rather than single checks. Tayla Moeykens won the Pendleton first round and the average in 57.05 for her $16,373. The Mandan figure is one check: Austyn Tobey won it outright in 18.06 for $12,938.

Mandan is the clearest case of why the added figure misleads. It carries $60,000 and paid its winner $12,938, because it runs one head to 36 riders and pays 12 of them. Three rodeos left put a gap-sized amount in front of one rider in a single week, and one of those three is closed to all but 12.

The 23 rodeos outside of Playoffs

A gap does not have to be closed in one check. In September 2025 it was not. Katelyn Scott won $32,319 in the final month of the 2025 season. Exactly $10,027 of it came from a Playoff Series rodeo, a tie for second at Mandan. The other $22,292 came from 11 ordinary rodeos.

She was third at Salt Lake City for $2,261, second at Abilene for $3,118, second at Albuquerque for $4,656, second at Tyler for $1,849 and third at Omaha for $1,289. On the Sioux Falls weekend she won San Bernardino for $3,952, was a tie for third at Stephenville for $1,821, fourth at Las Cruces for $1,046, fifth at Poway for $1,176, third at Bakersfield for $736 and ninth at Pasadena for $388. That is $9,119 in one weekend across six rodeos, and only one of them was a win.

Wenda Johnson did a smaller version of the same thing in one week, winning Amarillo for $2,720 and Omaha for $1,804 two days apart.

Here is what a win paid in 2025 at the rodeos on the 2026 schedule outside the big three.

Rodeo2026 addedA win paid, 2025
New Mexico State Fair, Albuquerque$15,000$5,820
Sheriff’s PRCA Rodeo, San Bernardino$20,000$3,952
West Texas Fair, Abilene$8,300$3,897
Cowboy Capital, Stephenville$5,000$2,801
Amarillo Tri-State Fair$6,000$2,720
Poway Rodeo$8,000$2,352
Pasadena Livestock Show$6,500$2,215
East Texas State Fair, Tyler$5,000$2,175
Young Living’s Last Chance, Mona$7,250$2,107
Othello PRCA Rodeo$5,000$2,053
Springhill PRCA Rodeo$6,000$2,015
Omaha River City Rodeo$5,000$1,804

Five more carry a 2025 winning check under $1,100: Bakersfield $1,030, Searcy $1,011, New Braunfels $947, Forrest City $585 and Cumberland $450. Flagler posted placings without money in 2025. Albuquerque, Abilene, Othello, Springhill and Omaha all overlap Pendleton and Mandan. Amarillo, Stephenville, Tyler, Pasadena, New Braunfels, San Bernardino, Poway, Mona, Bakersfield and Flagler all fall on the Sioux Falls weekend.

A win at every one of those 17 was worth $37,934 in 2025. Scott covered $22,292 of her September without winning most of the rodeos she placed at.

How safe is everybody inside the top 15

Katelyn Scott won $32,319 in September 2025, the largest September in our 2025 results, assembled almost entirely from placings rather than wins. It is a real ceiling rather than a theoretical one, which makes it the right yardstick for everyone inside the cut.

Every cushion below is the rider’s lead over Austyn Tobey at $98,059, the first rider outside.

Inside the cutProjectedLead over No. 16
No. 1 Carlee Otero$202,389$104,330
No. 2 Hayle Gibson-Stillwell$188,805$90,746
No. 3 Emily Beisel$182,132$84,073
No. 4 Kassie Mowry$167,830$69,771
No. 5 Hailey Kinsel$166,081$68,022
No. 6 Michelle Alley$160,027$61,968
No. 7 Sydney Graham$157,781$59,722
No. 8 Tayla Moeykens$145,083$47,024
No. 9 Kathy Grimes$128,999$30,940
No. 10 Lisa Lockhart$125,961$27,902
No. 11 Megan McLeod-Sprague$123,676$25,617
No. 12 Tricia Aldridge$119,969$21,910
No. 13 LaTricia Duke$116,269$18,210
No. 14 Katelyn Scott$110,414$12,355
No. 15 Makenzie Mayes$108,542$10,483

The $32,319 threshold falls between No. 8 and No. 9. Everyone from Tayla Moeykens up leads the first rider out by more than that, so a chaser would have to beat the largest September in our 2025 results just to draw level. Moeykens is $47,024 clear. Only Sioux Falls has paid one rider more than that in a week, and a chaser who took it outright would still have the rest to find.

From Kathy Grimes down it is a different conversation. Grimes is $30,940 up, Lisa Lockhart $27,902, Megan McLeod-Sprague $25,617 and Tricia Aldridge $21,910. Those are all inside one exceptional month. None of them is in trouble and all four have been earning, but a chaser having a Scott-shaped September reaches them on paper.

The three closest to the line are LaTricia Duke, Katelyn Scott and Makenzie Mayes. Duke is $18,210 up and won $1,491 across Spokane Valley and the Palouse Empire Rodeo. Katelyn Scott is $12,355 up. Mayes is $10,483 up. One Mandan win is $12,938.

Cutting the other way, five of the riders in that bottom group hold Sioux Falls seats of their own, so the cushions are not static. Mayes, Scott, Aldridge, Lockhart and McLeod-Sprague can all add at Sioux Falls while the riders chasing them are running at rodeos whose winning checks topped out at $5,820 in 2025.

Who can get to Sioux Falls

The field is limited to 12. The top four from Puyallup are in. The top eight in the Playoff Series standings as of Sept. 21 who are not already qualified off Puyallup fill the rest.

The Playoff Series board is posted through Sept. 8, so it does not yet carry Lewiston or Puyallup. On that board, with the Puyallup four set aside, the eight points seats belong to Emily Beisel, Hayle Gibson-Stillwell, Makenzie Mayes, Sydney Graham, Tayla Moeykens, Tricia Aldridge, Andrea Busby and Katelyn Scott. Scott holds the eighth at 796.26.

Kassie Mowry is 50.13 points back of that seat. LaTricia Duke is 69.38 back. Loralee Ward is 73.25 back. Kathy Grimes is 94.13 back. Raelin Jurgens is 98.75 back. Summer Kosel is 103.51 back. McKenna Coronado is 154.63 back. Heidi Gunderson is 205.00 back.

A win at a tier-one Playoff Series rodeo is worth 150 points, and only two Playoff Series stops run before the Sept. 21 cutoff, Pendleton and Mandan. So 300 points is the ceiling for anyone. Every rider named above reaches the eighth seat on one win except Coronado and Gunderson, who need both.

That also means the seats are not settled. Busby is No. 9 in points at 817.50, and seven riders sit within one tier-one win of her.

Austyn Tobey is No. 40 in the Playoff Series standings at 295.25, which is 501.01 points behind the eighth seat with 300 available. She was not in the Puyallup top four. Her board is Pendleton, Mandan and then the same final weekend as everybody else without a seat.

What that means, rider by rider

Each gap below holds Mayes at $108,542. She can add to it at Sioux Falls.

Makenzie Mayes. No. 15 at $108,542 and No. 4 in points at 1,029.39. Two riders sit above her among those not already qualified off Puyallup, and only two Playoff Series rodeos remain before the cutoff, so at most two more can gain on her. Six would have to. Up to $55,822 was available to one rider at Sioux Falls in 2025.

Austyn Tobey. No. 16, $10,483 back, and the only one of the five who cannot reach Sioux Falls. Pendleton and Mandan are the two rodeos left she can enter that put that much in front of one rider in a week. A Mandan win was $12,938 in 2025 and clears Mayes by $2,455. A tie for second at Mandan was $10,027 and leaves her $456 short. She won Mandan in 2025 in 18.06. Failing that, the route is the one Scott ran in September 2025.

Summer Kosel. No. 17, $11,625 back, and 103.51 points from a seat. A Mandan win covers the money with $1,313 to spare. A Pendleton week like Moeykens’ $16,373 in 2025 covers it, and the same win is worth 150 points.

Loralee Ward. No. 18, $14,037 back, and 73.25 points out, the shortest points climb of anyone chasing. A Mandan win leaves her $1,099 short on money. A $16,373 week at Pendleton clears it by $2,336.

Andrea Busby. No. 19, $16,733 back, and No. 9 in points at 817.50, which is a seat once the Puyallup four are set aside. She has the most money available of the five and no points climb at all, because she is defending a seat rather than chasing one. A $16,373 Pendleton week still leaves her $360 short of Mayes, so Sioux Falls is where her season is decided, and she has to keep the seat to get there.

Heidi Gunderson. No. 20, $19,728 back, and 205.00 points out. A $16,373 Pendleton week leaves her $3,355 short. She needs both rodeos, on money and on points.

And at the top

Otero leads by $13,584 and both she and Gibson-Stillwell are in the Sioux Falls field. A long-round win paid $11,911 in 2025, which is $1,673 short of the margin. A round win plus a fourth in the other round was $11,911 and $2,978, or $14,889, which clears it if Otero adds nothing. The championship round paid $32,000.

Emily Beisel is No. 3 at $182,132, $20,257 out of the lead, and she is in the field. Kassie Mowry is No. 4 at $167,830 and she is 50.13 points out of one, the closest of anybody on the outside.

What is left

Pendleton Round-Up, Sept. 16-19, $56,500 added, Playoff Series. North Dakota Rough Rider Cup at Mandan, Sept. 18-20, $60,000 added, Playoff Series. Pendleton runs through Sept. 19 and Mandan’s performances are Sept. 18, Sept. 19 and Sept. 20, so a rider entered at both has a travel problem that depends on when she runs at Pendleton.

Six more run inside that same window, which is the calendar problem for anyone chasing: New Mexico State Fair at Albuquerque, Sept. 16-20, $15,000 added, which paid $5,820 to win in 2025. West Texas Fair at Abilene, Sept. 15-19, $8,300, which paid $3,897. Springhill, Sept. 17-19, $6,000. Omaha, Sept. 18-19, $5,000. Othello, Sept. 18-19, $5,000. Kingman, Sept. 18-19, $3,500.

The Cinch Playoffs Governor’s Cup at Sioux Falls is Sept. 25-27, $166,666 added, two go-rounds plus a semifinal and a final. That weekend also carries San Bernardino, Amarillo, Stephenville, Tyler, Pasadena, Poway, Mona, Bakersfield, New Braunfels and Flagler. A rider without a Sioux Falls seat has 10 rodeos in front of her on the same three days, and in 2025 six of them paid Scott $9,119.

The last approvals of the 2026 season are at Cumberland, Maine, on Sept. 29 and Sept. 30, $1,000 added each.

World standings figures are projected and unofficial, folding published results through Sept. 13 into the WPRA board updated Sept. 11. Playoff Series points are the WPRA board posted through Sept. 8 and do not include Lewiston or Puyallup. Payout figures marked 2025 are what those rodeos paid that year.

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