Final Week Math: Who Can Still Upset the Top 15 and Who’s Safe

The final Playoff Series board is up. LaTricia Duke holds No. 15 at $116,618 and leads Pasadena, and Andrea Busby is the one rider outside the top 15 with a Sioux Falls seat.
Andrea Busby turns on a red horse at Caldwell
Andrea Busby wins Caldwell | Hailey Rae photo

Here’s our “bubble report,” updated Wednesday, Sept. 23.

LaTricia Duke holds the last NFR spot at $116,618 with one week left in the season, and she leads the Pasadena Livestock Show & Rodeo in Pasadena, Texas, at 14.53 seconds. Summer Kosel is No. 16 at $106,821, $9,797 back.

The Sioux Falls field is set, and Andrea Busby is the only rider outside the top 15 in it. She is No. 19 at $94,701, $21,917 back of Duke, and one rider can take $59,067 out of the Cinch Playoffs Governor’s Cup on Sept. 25-27.

So can anyone outside the top 15 still get in? Yes, but the most likely route is Sioux Falls. The biggest 2025 win check we have for any rodeo left outside Sioux Falls is $3,952, at San Bernardino, and the closest rider out is $9,797 back. Making up the distance would require multiple wins, if the distance is doable and there’s enough entries for the payout to match at the remaining rodeos.

Updated Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026. Standings are BarrelRacing.com projections through Sept. 20, with the Pendleton Round-Up and Mandan paid on the WPRA rulebook ladders explained below. The WPRA’s world standings, updated Sept. 21, carry money only through Salt Lake City. Playoff Series points are the WPRA’s final board, updated Sept. 21. Pasadena is leaders only, through three performances. The Sioux Falls field is off the Governor’s Cup trade list. Every 2025 winner’s check comes from our 2025 coverage.

The world standings top 20

Our projected world standings through Sept. 20, with where each rider stands for Sioux Falls. The top 15 go to the NFR.

No.RiderEarningsBack of No. 15Sioux Falls
1Carlee Otero$202,389In the field
2Hayle Gibson-Stillwell$195,195In the field
3Emily Beisel$185,008In the field
4Kassie Mowry$170,868
5Hailey Kinsel$166,081
6Michelle Alley$165,540In the field
7Tayla Moeykens$160,367In the field
8Sydney Graham$157,781In the field
9Lisa Lockhart$143,095In the field
10Kathy Grimes$135,273
11Megan McLeod-Sprague$134,915In the field
12Katelyn Scott$127,456In the field
13Tricia Aldridge$125,625In the field
14Makenzie Mayes$118,782In the field
15LaTricia Duke$116,618
NFR cut line
16Summer Kosel$106,821$9,797
17Austyn Tobey$101,941$14,677
18Loralee Ward$99,060$17,558
19Andrea Busby$94,701$21,917In the field
20Heidi Gunderson$88,814$27,804

Busby is the only rider outside the top 15 with a Sioux Falls seat, so it looks like one rider inside the top 15 could be bumped this week. Of Nos. 12 through 15, Duke is the only rider not in the field.

Only Sioux Falls pays enough to close the gap

Kosel is the closest rider to Duke at $9,797. Of the rodeos left with a 2025 winner’s check in our coverage, the biggest was San Bernardino, Calif., at $3,952. Winning all three California rodeos left, San Bernardino, Poway and Bakersfield, came to $7,334 on 2025 money, $2,463 short of Kosel’s gap before anything Duke adds. Winning all four Texas rodeos that start Sept. 24 or 25, Amarillo, Stephenville, Tyler and New Braunfels, came to $8,643, $1,154 short.

At Sioux Falls, one long-round win pays $12,533 and the championship pays $34,000. Three of the riders directly above Duke are in the field: Katelyn Scott at No. 12, Tricia Aldridge at No. 13 and Makenzie Mayes at No. 14.

The Sioux Falls field is set

Four riders are in off Puyallup: Carlee Otero, Michelle Alley, Lisa Lockhart and Megan McLeod-Sprague. The other eight went to the top eight on the WPRA’s final board who did not qualify at Puyallup. And yes, we’re awaiting the tradeslist to drop anxiously.

SeatRiderPoints
1Emily Beisel1,373.13
2Hayle Gibson-Stillwell1,321.01
3Tayla Moeykens1,232.00
4Makenzie Mayes1,134.39
5Sydney Graham1,060.76
6Katelyn Scott999.26
7Tricia Aldridge965.13
8Andrea Busby897.75
NextSummer Kosel816.88
Kathy Grimes801.13
Loralee Ward788.76
Kassie Mowry766.13
LaTricia Duke752.63

All eight entered, so the field is the Puyallup four and the eight points seats above. Kosel was the first rider out, 80.87 points behind Busby. Busby is first out Friday night and Otero is last.

Busby needs $21,917

Busby was 12th at Mandan for $1,278 and took a share of 14th at Albuquerque for $292. She needs $21,917 to pass Duke as the board stands today. If Duke wins Pasadena for what it paid in 2025, $2,215, Busby needs $24,132.

What Busby doesPaysIf Duke stays at $116,618If Duke wins Pasadena
Wins the finals$34,000coverscovers
Wins a long round, third in the finals$29,533coverscovers
Second in the finals$26,000coverscovers
Wins both long rounds$25,067coverscovers
Wins a long round, second in the other$21,933covers$2,199 short
Wins a long round, fourth in the finals$21,533$384 short$2,599 short
Third in the finals$17,000$4,917 short$7,132 short

Four main ways get her there even if Duke wins Pasadena at last year’s pay: win the finals, place second in the finals, win both long rounds, or win a long round and place third or better in the finals. A f

Kosel is $9,797 back

Kosel tied for second at Mandan for $9,905 and moved past Austyn Tobey into No. 16 at $106,821. She has said on social media she won’t try to hit every rodeo left.

She is not in the Sioux Falls field. The California and Texas sweeps above both come up short of $9,797 on 2025 money.

Tobey, Ward and Gunderson

Austyn Tobey is No. 17 at $101,941, $14,677 back. Loralee Ward is No. 18 at $99,060, $17,558 back, and has said on social media she isn’t hitting every rodeo left. Heidi Gunderson is No. 20 at $88,814, $27,804 back. None of the three is in the Sioux Falls field.

Duke leads Pasadena

Pasadena is one head and runs through Friday night. Leaders after the slack and three performances: 1. LaTricia Duke, 14.53 seconds; 2. Jimmie Smith, 14.57; 3. Gracen Harman, 14.66; 4. Kenna Kaminski, 14.78; 5. Jordan Driver, 14.80; 6. Makenzie Mayes, 14.82.

Stephanie Fryar won Pasadena in 2025 for $2,215. The barrel race carries $6,500 added in 2026.

What is left this week

RodeoDatesAddedA win paid in 2025
Pasadena, TexasSept. 20-25$6,500$2,215
Amarillo, TexasSept. 24-26$6,000$2,720
Stephenville, TexasSept. 24-26$5,000$2,801
New Braunfels, TexasSept. 24-26$2,000$947
Bakersfield, Calif.Sept. 24-26$3,000$1,030
Sioux Falls, S.D.Sept. 25-27$166,666.66up to $59,067 (2026 payout)
San Bernardino, Calif.Sept. 25-27$20,000$3,952
Poway, Calif.Sept. 25-26$8,000$2,352
Mona, UtahSept. 25-26$7,250$2,107
Tyler, TexasSept. 25-27$5,000$2,175
Bunnell, Fla.Sept. 25-26$2,000not posted
Cumberland, MaineSept. 29 and 30$1,000 each$450

Added money is the WPRA’s barrel racing figure. The season closes at Cumberland on Sept. 30, and every check lands on our results and world standings page as it is paid.

What Sioux Falls pays in 2026

The Cinch Playoffs Governor’s Cup runs Sept. 25-27 on $166,666.66 added, limited to 12 riders, over two long rounds, a semifinal and a final. This is the 2026 official Sioux Falls barrel racing payout, $166,667 per event.

StagePlaceMoney
Each long round, $31,333.501st$12,533.40
2nd$9,400.05
3rd$6,266.70
4th$3,133.35
Semifinal, $18,0005th through 8th$4,500 each
Finals, $86,0001st$34,000
2nd$26,000
3rd$17,000
4th$9,000

The most one rider can take out of it is $59,067, off both long-round wins and the championship. In 2025 the most one rider took was $55,822.

Moeykens wins Mandan at 17.00

The North Dakota Roughrider Cup paid 12 places out of a $63,901 purse. Places and times per ProRodeo.com’s unofficial results; the dollars are ours, rebuilt on the 12-money ladder in WPRA rule 11.1.2.5 because Mandan’s ground rules set the barrel race at 12 places and ProRodeo posted it across 15.

1. Tayla Moeykens, 17.00 seconds, $12,780; 2. (tie) Summer Kosel and Lisa Lockhart, 17.12, $9,905 each; 4. Alyssa Gabrielson, 17.15, $7,668; 5. Hayle Gibson-Stillwell, 17.16, $6,390; 6. Michelle Alley, 17.21, $4,473; 7. (tie) Emily Beisel and Loralee Ward, 17.24, $2,876 each; 9. Megan McLeod-Sprague, 17.35, $2,237; 10. Tricia Aldridge, 17.37, $1,917; 11. Kathy Grimes, 17.38, $1,598; 12. Andrea Busby, 17.39, $1,278.

Hailey Kinsel, Emma Parr and Blake Molle ran 13th through 15th and are outside the money on a 12-place payout. Mandan paid 12 places in 2025 as well. The full sheet is on our Roughrider Cup daysheets and results page.

Duke holds No. 15 by $9,797

No.RiderEntering the weekThis weekProjected total
10Kathy Grimes$128,999$6,274$135,273
11Megan McLeod-Sprague$123,676$11,239$134,915
12Katelyn Scott$110,413$17,043$127,456
13Tricia Aldridge$119,968$5,657$125,625
14Makenzie Mayes$108,542$10,240$118,782
15LaTricia Duke$116,618$0$116,618
16Summer Kosel$96,916$9,905$106,821
17Austyn Tobey$98,059$3,882$101,941
18Loralee Ward$94,504$4,556$99,060
19Andrea Busby$91,809$2,892$94,701
20Heidi Gunderson$88,814$0$88,814

Duke ran Mandan and finished outside the 12 places, so she is No. 15 at $116,618, the figure she carried into the week. Kosel is No. 16 at $106,821 and Tobey No. 17 at $101,941. Ward is No. 18 at $99,060 after a share of seventh at Mandan worth $2,876, and Busby is No. 19 at $94,701.

Lisa Lockhart banked the most on the week at $17,134 and is No. 9 at $143,095, on a Pendleton long-round win and a share of second at Mandan. Katelyn Scott is next at $17,043 and holds No. 12 at $127,456. Kathy Grimes moved to No. 10 at $135,273 on $6,274, including $4,676 for winning the New Mexico State Fair and Rodeo.

Mayes is No. 14 at $118,782

Makenzie Mayes held the last NFR spot on Sept. 14 at $108,542, without a check in two weeks. She was second in the Pendleton long round, fourth in the average and fourth in the short round for $10,005 on our corrected ladder, then added $235 at Othello, Wash. She is No. 14 at $118,782, $2,164 up on No. 15 Duke. On the WPRA’s final Playoff Series board she is No. 6 at 1,134.39 and holds a Sioux Falls seat.

Pendleton pays 10 places, not 15

Our Pendleton figures are not the ones on ProRodeo.com. WPRA rule 11.1.2.14 caps a long go-round or an average at 10 places when a rodeo runs a short go, and ProRodeo paid 15 in both. The purse and the 45-10-45 split it posted are correct, and the finals are correct; the number of places is not.

Rebuilt on the 10-money ladder, Scott’s Pendleton week goes from $11,947 to $12,851, Mayes from $8,500 to $10,005, McLeod-Sprague from $8,701 to $9,002 and Caitlyn White from $7,061 to $8,266. Lisa Lockhart won the long round, was ninth in the average and finishes at $7,229 either way. Every rider whose check gets smaller under the corrected ladder is outside our top 70, and the correction does not move the cut.

Mandan’s ground rules set the barrel race at 12 places and ProRodeo posted the payout across 15, so we have rebuilt that one on the 12-money ladder in rule 11.1.2.5. Neither correction moves a rider’s position in our top 70. If the WPRA confirms ProRodeo’s figures on either rodeo, we will put them back and say so.

Earlier: going into Mandan’s last performance

On Sunday afternoon, before the third performance, Duke held the last NFR spot at $116,618 and Tobey was No. 16 at $101,941, $14,677 back. Moeykens led Mandan at 17.00 through two performances, with Grimes fourth at 17.38, Busby fifth at 17.39 and Duke 12th at 17.53. Kosel’s tie for second then moved her past Tobey into No. 16. Tobey did not place at Mandan.

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